Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.