Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
