The UK government is testing out a new stance on leaving the EU, but this isn't equivalent to a change in direction. The adjustment is mostly in tone.
Previously, the Labour leadership described Britain's detachment from Europe as a fixed element of the national situation, awkward to handle perhaps, but ultimately unavoidable. Now, they are willing to acknowledge it as a genuine affliction.
Addressing attendees at a regional investment conference recently, the chancellor included Brexit alongside the COVID-19 and spending cuts as factors behind persistent economic lethargy. She reiterated this viewpoint at an IMF meeting in the US capital, noting that the country's productivity challenge has been compounded by the way in which the UK left the EU.
This represented a precisely formulated statement, attributing harm not to Brexit itself but to its implementation; blaming the officials who handled it, not the public who supported it. This differentiation will be crucial when the budget is presented next month. The aim is to attribute certain economic problems to the deal negotiated by Boris Johnson without appearing to dismiss the hopes of those who voted to exit.
Among evidence-focused observers, the financial debate is mostly resolved. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that the UK's sustained output is 4% lower than it could have been with ongoing European partnership.
In addition to the costs of trade friction, there has been a sustained decline in business investment due to political instability and unclear rules. There was also the opportunity cost of government energy being diverted toward a objective for which no preparation had been made, since supporters had seriously considered the practical implications of making it happen.
With evidence being clear, authorities struggle to maintain political neutrality. The central bank chief told last week's IMF meeting that he takes no side on Brexit before adding that its impact on growth will be negative for the coming years.
He predicted a slight positive adjustment eventually, which provides scant relief to a treasury head who must tackle a significant revenue shortfall soon. Tax increases are planned, and the chancellor wants the citizens to understand that Brexit is one contributing factor.
The statement is important to voice because it is true. That doesn't guarantee political benefit from saying it. This truth was evident when the administration delivered its previous tax-raising budget and during the national vote, which Labour fought while sidestepping the certainty of tax increases.
At this stage, with the administration being established but unpopular, explaining economic hardship sounds like justifying failure to numerous constituents. There could be more advantage in blaming the Conservatives for all problems if they were the sole opposition and a credible threat. The usual ruling party tactic in a bipartisan contest is to assert responsibility for fixing the opponent's errors and warn against their return. The emergence of Reform UK complicates matters.
Ideological gaps between the main opponents are small, but the electorate observe interpersonal conflict more than shared beliefs. Those attracted to the Reform leader due to distrust in establishment—particularly on immigration control—don't see Reform and the Tories as similar entities. One party has a record of allowing immigration, while Reform does not—a difference their leader will repeatedly emphasize.
The Reform leader is less eager to talk about EU exit, in part since it is a achievement shared with Conservatives and partly because there are no positive outcomes to highlight. When pressed, he may argue that the goal was sabotaged by flawed implementation, but even that defense acknowledges disappointment. Simpler to change the subject.
This explains why the government feels more confident bringing it up. Starmer's address to supporters marked a significant shift. Previously, he had discussed British-European ties in dry, technical terms, focusing on a partnership renewal that addressed uncontentious obstacles like border inspections while steering clear of the divisive cultural issues at the core of the Brexit aftermath.
During his address, Starmer did not fully embrace pro-EU arguments, but he hinted at familiarity with past claims. He referenced "false promises on the side of the campaign vehicle"—alluding to leave campaign pledges about health service money—in the context of "dubious solutions" sold by politicians whose easy fixes exacerbate the nation's problems.
Departure from the EU was equated with Covid as difficult experiences endured by ordinary people in recent years. Comparing Brexit to a disease signals a hardening of rhetoric, even if the economic measures currently under discussion in EU headquarters remain the same.
The aim is to link Farage to a well-known example of political mis-selling, suggesting he is unreliable; that he capitalizes on frustration and sows division but cannot manage effectively.
The removal of four Kent councillors from Reform's local government team reinforces that narrative. Leaked footage of a online meeting showed internal disputes and blame-shifting, demonstrating the difficulties inexperienced figures face when providing community resources on limited budgets—much harder than distributing leaflets about reducing inefficiency or controlling immigration.
This criticism is productive for the government, but it requires the government's service delivery being sufficiently strong that electing Reform seems a risky gamble. Additionally, this is a strategy for a later election that may not occur until 2029. If Starmer and Reeves wish to be seen as antidotes to Faragism, they must show meanwhile with a clear, constructive program of their own.
Restrictions exist to what can be achieved with a rhetorical shift, and time is short. It would be simpler to make the case today that Brexit is an affliction and his promoter untrustworthy if they had said so earlier. What additional choices might they have? Do they merit praise for admitting it now when other excuses have failed? Yes. But the issue with arriving at the evident truth via the most circuitous route is that people question the procrastination. Beginning with honesty is quicker.
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